Strike Update: At what point do I need to start crying?

Not good. NOT GOOD. Two updates, from Nikki Finke’s Deadline Hollywood Daily and from Hollywood Today‘s Alex Ben Block, are predicting another breakdown of contract talks; Block is calling it a “sucker punch for the writers.” It’s really depressing to blog about this first thing in the morning, but I feel even worse for the writers (and shows’ members, in general), if this turns out to be true.

From Hollywood Today:

Angry Studio Chiefs Claim Writer’s Demands Could Kill Internet Streaming
Thursday, December 6th, 2007
Moguls remain restrained in public but privately are angry about the WGA’s latest demands; which is going to make it nearly impossible to do a deal by Christmas. Directors Guild waits and watches, but not for long.
By Alex Ben Block

HOLLYWOOD, CA (Hollywood Today) – 12/06/07 – The striking writers have finally engaged management in a real negotiations, but they may have just enraged them instead. As the renewed talks continue into a fourth day this week, the Writers Guild may not be happy when they hear how much some executives of big six companies hate the WGA proposals on new media. “If we did what they have proposed,” one CEO told me yesterday, “we would lose money every time we streamed a show over the Internet.”

. . .

There are signs the writers unity is working – reports of dissention among the ranks of the AMPTP’s key members; a softer stance by management in PR and negotiations in the past few days; and comments suggesting that management proposals are flexible.

However, what I am hearing is that this could be another sucker punch for the writers, who think they have finally broken though into a new level of negotiations where the two sides talk things over instead of talking at each other. “For the last two days, we have had substantive discussions of the issues important to writers, the first time this has occurred in this negotiation,” the WGA Negotiating Committee wrote to guild members. “However, we are still waiting for the AMPTP to respond to all of our proposals, including Internet streaming of theatrical and television product and digital downloads.”

When that response does come, the guild negotiators may not like what they hear. I’ve spoken to several moguls over the past few days (since I accused them of ‘Swift Boating’ the WGA) and if their mood means anything, there is no easy or quick resolution to this strike. Whether they own networks or not, they are adamant that they will not agree to the creation of a old media cost structure on new media, that would slow down the creation of new business models; and none of them believes they should have to pay more than the Home Video rate for digital downloads.

. . .

In its public utterances, the AMPTP continues to use its indoor voice, no doubt fine tuned by a new PR team. “We remain committed to making a fair and reasonable deal.,” the AMPTP said in a statement late Wednesday. “ We believe that there is common ground to be found between the two sides that will put all of us in the entertainment industry in a better position to survive and prosper in what is a rapidly changing modern, global marketplace. Our New Economic Partnership proposes a long-term sustainable future for our industry where we all stand to benefit, including providing more than $130 million in additional compensation for the writers above and beyond the more than $1.3 billion the writers already receive each year.”

. . .

Management has laid back so far but their hatred for the WGA proposal will bubble to the surface, and will be an obstacle to any deal. There were signs of progress and real hope that a deal could be done before Christmas earlier this week, but don’t get out the tinsel too quickly. There is no quick settlement at hand.

If the strike does drag on, expect the Director’s Guild to take an independent stance and begin early negotiations on their own contract, hoping to set a precedent that the writers will then follow. Until now the DGA has held off even setting a date for negotiations at the request of the WGA; but if these December talks break down, the DGA can be expected to move unilaterally early next year.

So seething moguls are waiting to spring their surprise on the writers, and knock them back down to earth; and when the inevitable happens, there will be little left to cheer this holiday season. These talks appear headed for a strike out.

Read the full article at Hollywood Today

Deadline Hollywood Daily echoes the grim tone:

Talks Day #7: AMPTP “Stalling Tactics”; Are The Moguls About To Quit The Talks?

EXCLUSIVE: I wish I had better news about the AMPTP-WGA contract negotiations, but I don’t. To sum up, they suck. I took extra time reporting tonight, and some very surprising developments came to light. For instance, Peter Chernin is privately telling Hollywood that the producers plan to quit the talks any day now. That they have no intention of coming back with another streaming proposal “until we are close”. And that they’ll only give a better electronic sell-through formula “at the last minute” when a contract with the writers is virtually signed.

These quiet remarks by the Fox/News Corp No. 2 are the complete opposite of what the AMPTP is telling the WGA around the bargaining table.

I’m told Thursday’s talks began at 10 AM, and both the WGA and AMPTP had a brief discussion about streaming, made-for-web content pay and jurisdiction, and electronic sell-through. Then one of the negotiators from the network and studio CEOs’ side declared, “The DVD formula is good for you, and you should embrace it with open arms.”

The AMPTP then claimed it had “a proposal coming” supposedly based on the writers’ streaming counter-proposal from Tuesday and asked the WGA side to wait around. By 5 pm, it wasn’t done. Then the producers claimed they would work on the proposal at the hotel straight through midnight or later and give it to the WGA at Friday’s session.

But some of the WGA negotiators hung around the hotel and, to their surprise, watched the AMPTP contingent get in their cars at exactly 6 PM and individually drive off.

(This follows what happened on Wednesday when the AMPTP negotiators asked to break early to celebrate the first day of Chanukah — yet their official statement later claimed it had been the writers side who didn’t want to negotiate late into the evening…)

Chernin, CBS’ Les Moonves, and some of the other Hollywood moguls this week keep kvetching about how “frustrating” the AMPTP-WGA talks have become and how “pessimistic” they are about a quick resolution. The bigwigs have even concocted this fiction that they wanted to solve the strike in three intense days of negotiations before Christmas but now they see that’s impossible because of the level of mistrust and misunderstanding around the table. My sources tell me the CEOs seem to be looking for any excuse to blame WGA chief negotiator Dave Young specifically for “blowing it”.

But the truth is this: the Hollywood moguls have not delivered on their promises. And Chernin’s statements make clear they never had any intention of doing so right now. Days are passing, and the AMPTP still hasn’t come back with a counter/counter-offer to the WGA’s counter-offer to the AMPTP’s offer on streaming. Days are passing, and the AMPTP still hasn’t come back with the 2nd half of its New Media proposal presumably containing ESTs. Days are passing, and the AMPTP and WGA are still paralyzed on Internet issues, which is why they moved way down their list to the subject of Reality TV jurisdiction. Sure that angered the CEOs who own a network — and I think it was a giant mistake by the writers’ negotiating team to get off New Media and onto that. But it came up because of the AMPTP’s stalling tactics, and the two sides had to jawbone about something.

In conclusion, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if, as soon as Friday, the AMPTP walks out of the talks with a news release in hand that it’s all the WGA’s fault.

And I now predict the CEOs will make a big public show of deciding to open talks with the Directors Guild right away and thus try to screw the striking writers. (That’s already begun — today’s Los Angeles Times virtually announces it in roundabout fashion by noting that 300 director-writers today begged their DGA to hold off…)

And I predict the AMPTP won’t return to negotiations with the writers until February at the earliest after declaring force majeure. Please, oh please, prove me wrong.

This isn’t me trying to be clever, but . . . words fail me.